Betting Edge

The PFT Model's read on every game — paired with the best price across sportsbooks to act on it

How to use this: The PFT Model's lean on every game is analysis, not a lock — historically ~50% against the closing spread, so the edge that compounds is price: each game lists the best number on both sides and the book offering it — take it. Mid is the gap between those two numbers; the wider it is, the bigger the middle — the range of final scores where both sides win.

PFT Model vs Market

Top Edges · Week 1 — biggest model vs market gaps + best price

NE @ SEA8.1 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT SEA -5.3 · mkt SEA -4.0

LeanSEA -4.0

Best priceSEA -3.5 -115best of 9

WinSEA 65% · mkt 62%

CLE @ JAX7.7 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT JAX -13.1 · mkt JAX -7.5

LeanJAX -7.5

Best priceJAX -7.5 -110best of 9

WinJAX 83% · mkt 71%

WAS @ PHI5.8 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT PHI -10.3 · mkt PHI -4.5

LeanPHI -4.5

Best pricePHI -4 -110best of 9

WinPHI 78% · mkt 63%

SF @ LAR5.2 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT LAR -8.7 · mkt LAR -3.5

LeanLAR -3.5

Best priceLAR -3 -120best of 9

WinLAR 74% · mkt 60%

TB @ CIN5.1 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT CIN -1.1 · mkt CIN -3.5

LeanTB +3.5

Best priceTB +4 -110best of 9

WinCIN 53% · mkt 60%

DEN @ KC5.0 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT DEN -2.5 · mkt KC -2.5

LeanDEN +2.5

Best priceDEN +3 -115best of 9

WinDEN 57% · mkt 43%

NYJ @ TEN4.7 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT TEN -5.0 · mkt TEN -2.5

LeanTEN -2.5

Best priceTEN -2 -120best of 9

WinTEN 64% · mkt 57%

DAL @ NYG4.2 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT NYG -0.8 · mkt DAL -2.5

LeanNYG +2.5

Best priceNYG +2.5 -115best of 9

WinNYG 52% · mkt 43%

Full Slate — every game, model read + best price

NE @ SEASEA 65% · mkt 62%

PFT Model

PFT SEA -5.3 · mkt SEA -4.0

proj NE 16 · SEA 21

leans SEA -4.0

◆ Mid 1

SEA -3.5 -115DraftKings

NE +4.5 -115FanDuel

CLE @ JAXJAX 83% · mkt 71%

PFT Model

PFT JAX -13.1 · mkt JAX -7.5

proj CLE 10 · JAX 23

leans JAX -7.5

◆ Mid 0

JAX -7.5 -110DraftKings

CLE +7.5 -110DraftKings

WAS @ PHIPHI 78% · mkt 63%

PFT Model

PFT PHI -10.3 · mkt PHI -4.5

proj WAS 18 · PHI 28

leans PHI -4.5

◆ Mid 1.5

PHI -4 -110LowVig

WAS +5.5 -110DraftKings

SF @ LARLAR 74% · mkt 60%

PFT Model

PFT LAR -8.7 · mkt LAR -3.5

proj SF 21 · LAR 30

leans LAR -3.5

◆ Mid 0.5

LAR -3 -120DraftKings

SF +3.5 -110FanDuel

TB @ CINCIN 53% · mkt 60%

PFT Model

PFT CIN -1.1 · mkt CIN -3.5

proj TB 28 · CIN 29

leans TB +3.5

◆ Mid 0.5

CIN -3.5 -110DraftKings

TB +4 -110MyBookie

DEN @ KCDEN 57% · mkt 43%

PFT Model

PFT DEN -2.5 · mkt KC -2.5

proj DEN 22 · KC 20

leans DEN +2.5

◆ Mid 1

KC -2 -120BetUS

DEN +3 -115BetMGM

NYJ @ TENTEN 64% · mkt 57%

PFT Model

PFT TEN -5.0 · mkt TEN -2.5

proj NYJ 19 · TEN 24

leans TEN -2.5

◆ Mid 1

TEN -2 -120BetUS

NYJ +3 -105DraftKings

DAL @ NYGNYG 52% · mkt 43%

PFT Model

PFT NYG -0.8 · mkt DAL -2.5

proj DAL 26 · NYG 27

leans NYG +2.5

◆ Mid 1

NYG +2.5 -115DraftKings

DAL -1.5 -120BetUS

NO @ DETDET 78% · mkt 70%

PFT Model

PFT DET -10.6 · mkt DET -7.0

proj NO 17 · DET 28

leans DET -7.0

Best price

no live price yet

BAL @ INDBAL 55% · mkt 60%

PFT Model

PFT BAL -1.6 · mkt BAL -3.5

proj BAL 23 · IND 22

leans IND +3.5

◆ Mid 0.5

IND +4 -110MyBookie

BAL -3.5 -110DraftKings

GB @ MINMIN 56% · mkt 47%

PFT Model

PFT MIN -2.2 · mkt GB -1.0

proj GB 21 · MIN 23

leans MIN +1.0

◆ Mid 2.5

MIN +1.5 -110DraftKings

GB +1 -110MyBookie

BUF @ HOUHOU 56% · mkt 47%

PFT Model

PFT HOU -2.0 · mkt BUF -1.0

proj BUF 20 · HOU 22

leans HOU +1.0

◆ Mid 0.5

HOU +1.5 -120DraftKings

BUF -1 -113BetRivers

ARI @ LACLAC 72% · mkt 78%

PFT Model

PFT LAC -7.8 · mkt LAC -10.5

proj ARI 19 · LAC 27

leans ARI +10.5

◆ Mid 1.5

LAC -10 -110BetRivers

ARI +11.5 -110DraftKings

MIA @ LVLV 52% · mkt 59%

PFT Model

PFT LV -0.6 · mkt LV -3.0

proj MIA 21 · LV 22

leans MIA +3.0

◆ Mid 0.5

LV -3 -120DraftKings

MIA +3.5 -102FanDuel

ATL @ PITPIT 57% · mkt 59%

PFT Model

PFT PIT -2.5 · mkt PIT -3.0

proj ATL 19 · PIT 21

leans ATL +3.0

◆ Mid 0.5

PIT -2.5 -120FanDuel

ATL +3 +100DraftKings

CHI @ CARCHI 62% · mkt 57%

PFT Model

PFT CHI -4.1 · mkt CHI -2.5

proj CHI 24 · CAR 20

leans CHI -2.5

◆ Mid 0.5

CAR +2.5 -110DraftKings

CHI -2 -120BetUS

Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.