PFT Model Accuracy
Out-of-sample backtests of the PFT Model's calibrated engine — projections vs. what actually happened, and vs. Vegas closing lines
Player projections
Beat the naive baseline by 15% on per-game accuracy · p10–p90 coverage 80% (2025 backtest, 4,820 preds)
Team margins vs Vegas
Model MAE 10.73 vs Vegas 9.82 · beats the line 49.7% (2,895 games)
Player Accuracy
per-game rate vs naive · 4,820 predsskill 15%p10–p90 cov 80%
| Stat | N | Model /g | Base /g | Skill | Cov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | |||||
| Pass Yards | 37 | 32.1 | 60.95 | +47% | 78% |
| Pass TDs | 37 | 0.32 | 0.55 | +42% | 89% |
| Pass INTs | 37 | 0.21 | 0.25 | +17% | 87% |
| Pass Att | 37 | 3.54 | 8.07 | +56% | 87% |
| Pass Cmp | 37 | 2.53 | 5.46 | +54% | 84% |
| Rushing | |||||
| Rush Yards | 127 | 9.31 | 10.94 | +15% | 77% |
| Rush TDs | 127 | 0.14 | 0.14 | +1% | 75% |
| Rush Att | 90 | 2.29 | 2.59 | +12% | 77% |
| Receiving | |||||
| Receptions | 327 | 0.69 | 0.79 | +12% | 77% |
| Rec Yards | 327 | 8.09 | 9.16 | +12% | 76% |
| Rec TDs | 327 | 0.1 | 0.11 | +8% | 78% |
| Targets | 327 | 0.93 | 1.05 | +11% | 80% |
| Defense | |||||
| Sacks | 387 | 0.11 | 0.13 | +15% | 80% |
| QB Hits | 194 | 0.21 | 0.26 | +19% | 86% |
| Tackles for Loss | 387 | 0.17 | 0.19 | +13% | 84% |
| Solo Tackles | 649 | 0.54 | 0.73 | +26% | 79% |
| Assist Tackles | 193 | 0.66 | 0.85 | +22% | 83% |
| Interceptions | 455 | 0.05 | 0.05 | +3% | 86% |
| Passes Defended | 262 | 0.18 | 0.2 | +8% | 73% |
| Forced Fumbles | 456 | 0.03 | 0.04 | +16% | 86% |
Team Margins vs Vegas Closing Lines
backtest
| Season | Games | Model MAE | Vegas MAE | Beat% | Corr·M | Corr·V |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 256 | 10.85 | 10.13 | 48.8% | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| 2016 | 256 | 9.87 | 9.02 | 46.8% | 0.22 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 256 | 11.05 | 10.09 | 48.8% | 0.2 | 0.44 |
| 2018 | 256 | 10.55 | 9.98 | 53% | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 256 | 11.24 | 10.21 | 50% | 0.3 | 0.48 |
| 2020 | 256 | 11.01 | 9.83 | 51.6% | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| 2021 | 272 | 11.32 | 10.78 | 53.7% | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| 2022 | 271 | 9.77 | 8.74 | 46.7% | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| 2023 | 272 | 10.56 | 9.9 | 51.6% | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| 2024 | 272 | 10.73 | 9.61 | 49.6% | 0.27 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 272 | 11.08 | 9.72 | 45.8% | 0.19 | 0.5 |
| Overall | 2895 | 10.73 | 9.82 | 49.7% | 0.26 | 0.44 |
Lower MAE = closer to the real margin. Matching Vegas' MAE means we're at market level; a Beat% above 50 implies positive expectation against the closing line.